The Un-Unelectable: Trump 2020

I’ve got to admit irrespective of how you or I feel about the subject, it’s probably going to be a Trump Victory in 2020.

Illustration: Trump 2020 by Faye Schuster

I accepted it after reading Nancy Cook's article in Politico “Trump team plots tax cuts and regulatory suspensions to boost a coronavirus recovery”. For that reason, I can now affirm that it’s highly likely that Trump will be re-elected in 2020. What a claim - in the middle of ‘Damn Pandemic!’ - you may think to yourself. Yes true. In the midst of one of the worst crises to befall the U.S. in decades. A contender for the Top 3 worst managed moments in American history alongside 'Reconstruction' in the South after the civil war and Herbert Hoover's response to the 'Great Depression'.

'President Donald Trump has always preferred to play cheerleader rather than the bearer of bad news' - N Cooke

Playing the cheerleader is likely to be how Trump will begin his own campaign back to the Whitehouse. Even with an event that can easily be described as a monumental embarrassment for the most powerful economy in human history, I’d still be willing to put money on the chances for Trump's re-election in the campaign against Joe Biden.

How’s that going to happen?

Tax cuts! The majority of us given the opportunity would pay less tax. More money in the bank. More money to spend on you, your family, and your loved ones. That's exactly the reason Trump is seeking to cut payroll taxes and even to suspend them completely, as a means of revitalising the economy. Claiming in his recent Fox News town hall that such measures would be necessary. Surely it's bound to pull a few people and businesses over to the Trump camp if they’re just thinking with their wallets, which predictably the majority of America will be doing in the coming weeks and months leading up to the election.

How many people are really going to pick the climate above putting food on the table?

It’s worked before for Trump and will most likely work again, there could even be a stronger pull for the electorate - after seeing how well the markets and economy have performed under Trump. How many people are really going to pick the climate above putting food on the table when they’re promised the choice between a potential job in an industry that's a heavy polluter by Trump, against the prospect of rejoining the Paris climate change agreement by Biden. Especially in the shadow of a looming economic crisis.

There’s also the stimulus package cheques that Trump sent out (with some seemingly still en route) to every American individual earning less than $95,000 per year, amounting to $1,200 if you earn below $75,000. Quite literally ‘free money’, arguably tantamount to a bribe especially if plans to have Trump's signature written on the cheques materialise.

Although the presumptive nomination of Joe Biden in the Democratic primaries has been hailed a good thing, a large number of Democrats have come away feeling disillusioned by the nomination of the deeply established, career politician. That includes a large proportion of young voters who won’t be campaigning on behalf of Uncle Joe. Many of whom will forgo casting their ballots entirely.

Trump enjoys a ‘cult of personality’ that would be enviable to many African despots.

I must add, if we’re to be completely honest with ourselves it would've been the same situation for Sanders had he been elected if not worse. Trump enjoys a ‘cult of personality’ that would be enviable to many African despots, as well as an almost 100% approval rating amongst the Republican party. The Democrats, in comparison, are fractured and have failed yet again to elect a candidate that can unify them under the same big tent, let alone a candidate that can inspire and draw people out to vote.

Surely it’ll be Trump's handling of the Coronavirus crisis that will scamper his chances this time around. A complete catastrophe by most reasonable accounts, paired with a total lack of any responsibility on his part. But that seems to be the deadly game plan. Look at Putin in Russia and Xi Jiping in China, all practically absent leaving the crisis to be dealt with by governors and subordinates to avoid losing face.

Trump has similarly spent his time offloading responsibility onto the World Health Organisation, China, State governors, berating Democratic ones, and tarnishing many future presidential candidates in the process, whilst granting favour on his own republican ilk and dooming re-election chances for those republicans who’d dare call him out. The lack of executive responsibility will work in his favour as he’s able to point the finger in a variety of directions. Which he will most certainly be doing during the campaign.

There’s been constant failure from those who have tried to hold him accountable, with attempts backfiring such as his impeachment trial. Which saw his approval ratings increase. So what makes people think things will change now?

Will Coronavirus matter during the election?

Coronavirus was touted as the virus that didn’t discriminate! Nothing, not your race, gender, or socioeconomic group would prevent you from getting the disease more than anybody else. However, as it has spread across the west, especially in the U.S, this has shown to be a falsehood. Disproportionately, coronavirus has attacked and killed the poor, and ethnic minorities. Leading to a general lack of empathy from large swathes of the population, who seem to be more concerned they can’t get their hair done. A large contingent of which is affluent, yet also surprisingly consists of high-risk groups such as the poor and elderly.

Arguing vehemently that their rights are being withheld, ignored and trampled on. Many claim the constitution is being violated, stating their personal liberty should never be infringed for such a trivial matter such as public safety. Seemingly forgetting to consider the safety of workers who’ll be putting themselves and their families at risk by going back to work without adequate protection against the virus.

It was the 30th President, Calvin Coolidge who famously quipped, “The business of America is business”.

At no time in recent memory has that quote been more evident than during the coronavirus. The sooner businesses get back to business, the sooner the economy can get back to churning out its enormous profits, is the message from Trump. A large contingent of the American population agrees.

Cook notes, “Trump kicked off the week with a two-hour Fox News virtual town hall to hype the initial reopening of economies”, It’s understandable then, that Trump seems to expend more energy tweeting more about ending lockdowns and reducing the impact on the economy than he has about securing the safety of the American public even though “his own public health experts and advisers expressed renewed concerns”.

Don't for a second think this is nonsensical, it actually gives the Trump campaign a great advantage. Trump's antics are hard to go unnoticed and they will certainly not go ignored by big businesses who will likely reimburse him through campaign contributions for his efforts to reopen the economy quickly. Not to mention the tax cuts and deregulation that have defined his presidency, which are set to increase as an effort to mitigate the economic impacts of the pandemic.

We could end up seeing a great disparity in the campaign contributions between Trump and Biden as a result.

We can’t neglect to discuss the Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economic Security Act or CARES Act which has seen major corporations handed $454 billion dollars so far which adds credence to my point. It wouldn't surprise me to see greater sums of financial contribution than ever before during this election with much of it being directed towards Trump's campaign. In fact we could end up seeing a great disparity in the campaign contribution numbers between Trump and Biden as a result, though not as shocking as if this had been a race between Sanders Vs Trump.

America under Trump

Well what's the track record so far? Under Trump, American citizens have seen lower taxes and higher employment, with the unemployment rate the lowest it’s been in 50 years. The unemployment rate for BAME groups also being the lowest since those statistics started being collected in 1970. U.S. stock markets have also witnessed record highs on an almost weekly basis, that is until the coronavirus shut down the world economy and saw all the gains made during the Trump era wiped out. In most economic crises the finger can be pointed at the policies of the person in charge at the time. Luckily for Trump, he has the cover of coronavirus which has left its mark on all the world's economies.

Trump's foreign policy has proved an interesting shift, choosing to call out allies such as NATO over expenses. Trump has strengthened ties with Russia and North Korea whilst choosing to sever those made with Iran under Obama. Trump has also expressed support for withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan as well as a generally less interventionist foreign policy.

Back in the U.S. Trump's domestic policy has proved more than contentious with proposals such as the Muslim travel ban, his cracking down on immigration, and deportation of undocumented migrants. In addition to the construction of the border wall along the Mexican border and repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obama Care).

“It’s the economy stupid" - J Carville

Yet how much does this affect the average citizen who’s wallet is, or should I say was, slightly plumper, and who’s 401k was growing nicely due to the soaring markets? Like James Carville, a strategist for Bill Clinton, said “It’s the economy stupid”. It seems unlikely to me that voters will be enticed enough by Joe Biden's economy status quo plan to end Trump's reign.

Surely Trump can’t really pull it off again

Maybe Trump's chances aren’t as strong as I’ve made out. The U.S. saw their unemployment rate rise to 14%, with 20.5 million jobs lost in April alone. With signs of a recession being worse than the great recession of 2008, the question remains whether voters will blame the economic downturn on Trump and his administration's handling of the situation. This would result in the electorate ousting him in the next election in favour of the traditional establishment figure Joe Biden, who could be seen as a “safe pair of hands” and a return to “normalcy”.

Trump seriously runs that risk, especially if more financial aid isn’t given out to the public. Many of whom still have their bills to pay, or will be expected to pay in the next few months. Without any income to pay these or the meagre stimulus cheques, this would result in many personal bankruptcies and a sharp rise in household debts.

The popularity of Joe Biden is supported by the latest polling figures which have seen Biden leading Trump by 3-5 percentage points - on the low end. Although those who kept track of the 2016 elections will remember seeing Clinton polling leagues ahead of Trump in almost every established poll. A reason to remind ourselves to be wary of placing our trust in polling figures.

Yet it’s so hard to ignore that Trump has had 4 years distinguished by consistently low approval ratings, impeachment by the house of representatives, and as Cook points out, losing significant political capital by, “Promoting a future economic boom… as the coronavirus death toll soars to over 60,000 people”. By most metrics this would signal a bad omen for any normal president's re-election hopes, but Trump is far from a normal president. The president who is claiming that it would be a “success” if 80,000 to 90,000 people died.

Yes, he probably can

Trump can count on the entire support of the Republican party as he faces relatively little friction within his own party. Whilst Biden has been relatively absent for several weeks, being unable to campaign due to the coronavirus, Trump has been able to reach almost every American citizen during the daily coronavirus briefings.

When televised debates take place I can’t see Biden’s ratings improving, especially when being constantly lambasted lately for what many assume to be his cognitive decline. It seems that taking on Trump in a live televised debate will only shine a light on this issue and other less positive differences Biden has with Trump.

Finally, and most worryingly for the Biden campaign, Trump represents a lot of things to many people. His ideology can be easily summarised as a belief in lowering taxes, deregulation, and protectionism. Whilst Joe Biden represents seemingly very little bar the fact he isn’t Trump. I don’t think that'll be enough to convince the American electorate in November.

America is once again faced with an awfully absurd choice, this time between Trump and Joe Biden. Trump, America’s cheerleader, offers a clear song to sing and a path to walk. For that reason I’m predicting an election probably resulting in a Trump victory very similar to that of 2016.

“I think we’re going to have an incredible following year” - Donald Trump

cheered Trump at the foot of the Lincoln Memorial, during his recent town hall - however you or I feel, whatever your political alignments, for better or worse he’s probably right.